The Real Culprit: The Houston Rockets

As Miami Heat fans turn on the team in a manner which would make Tolai tribesmen recoil with indigestion, let us not lose sight of the real culprits for the Heat's first round demise. The Houston Rockets.

As a Miami Heat fan who was very sure of a Dwyane Wade vs. Lebron James 2nd round matchup, I wish I had not looked up the numbers with respect to how the 4th seed [Atlanta] typically does against the 5th seed [Miami] in the playoffs. First a little NBA history.

After a particularly close 2002 NBA Playoffs, one in which half of the eight first round serieses went to a deciding 5th game, the NBA expanded the playoffs so that the first round serieses also went to seven games the following year. Ironically, the 4/5 matchup that year was the only seeding matchup which did not go the full five games in either conference, although there were no upsets.

Since 2003, the 4th vs 5th seed matchup has seen only 4 of the 14 first round series [in the 7 years] be won by the 5th seed. I find the 5th seed's 29% winning percentage surprisingly low, but perhaps it is a testament to how significant the home court advantage is. But here's the real surprising part. The 5th seed has only defeated the 4th seed in odd number playoff years, and only one of the 5th seeds get to do it in that year.

Here are the Fab Fifth Seeds who have triumphed:

• 2009 Houston def Portland
• 2007 Chicago def Miami
• 2005 Washington def Chicago
• 2003 LA [Lakers] def Minnesota

While it's no consolation for us Heat fans, none of the 5th seed winners have made it past the next round, the Conference Semifinals.

Why Home Court Matters

There was an article from the Oklahoma City Thunder NBA reporter, Mike Baldwin which took a close look at the advantage higher seeds have.

2008: No. 1 Boston def. No. 1 LA Lakers
2007: No. 3 San Antonio def. No. 2 Cleveland
2006: No. 2 Miami def. No. 2 Dallas
2005: No. 2 San Antonio def. No. 2 Detroit
2004: No. 2 Detroit def. No. 2 LA Lakers
2003: No. 1 San Antonio def. No. 2 New Jersey
2002: No. 2 LA Lakers def. No. 1 New Jersey
2001: No. 2 LA Lakers def. No. 1 Philadelphia
2000: No. 1 LA Lakers def. No. 1 Indiana
1999: No. 1 San Antonio def. No. 8 New York
1998: No. 1 Chicago def. No. 1 Utah
1997: No. 1 Chicago def. No. 1 Utah
1996: No. 1 Chicago def. No. 1 Seattle
1995: No. 6 Houston def. No. 1 Orlando
1994: No. 2 Houston def. No. 2 New York
1993: No. 2 Chicago def. No. 1 Phoenix
1992: No. 1 Chicago def. No. 1 Portland
1991: No. 1 Chicago def. No. 3 LA Lakers
1990: No. 1 Detroit def. No. 2 Portland
1989: No. 1 Detroit def. No. 1 LA Lakers

Article referenced is copied in full at end of post.

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Top seeds have advantage in NBA playoffs - NBA playoffs: No. 1 or 2 seed helps in getting to Finals

By Mike Baldwin, NBA reporter - Published: March 29, 2009

The chase for home-court advantage could come down to the final day of the season.

How important is home-court advantage?

Extremely important.

If you’re not seeded No. 1 or No. 2, history suggests you won’t reach the NBA Finals, much less win the title.

Of the past 20 champions, 18 have been seeded No. 1 or No. 2 in their respective conferences.

The two exceptions were the 2007 Spurs and 1995 Rockets, veteran teams that had won before. Every other champion since the 1988-89 season was seeded No. 1 or No. 2.

San Antonio was assisted by No. 8 seed Golden State’s upset of Dallas two years ago. The Spurs regained home-court advantage in the Western Conference finals after eliminating Phoenix in the semifinals.

Being the No. 1 or No. 2 seed also is critical just to reach the Finals. The past two decades, 90 percent of the teams in the Finals (36 of 40) were seeded No. 1 or No. 2.

The Knicks, a No. 8 seed in 1999, were an aberration because of the lockout year. The other exception was the 1990-91 Lakers, a No. 3 seed that benefited from No. 2 seed San Antonio losing in the first round.

Which brings us to the current season.

Races for the No. 1 seeds essentially are over. The Lakers (West) and Cavaliers (East) are locks to nail down the top spots.

But as history shows, the race for the No. 2 seed could be significant.

Orlando’s win over Boston last week was huge. The Celtics and Magic split their regular-season series. It could boil down to the tiebreaker — best conference record. Boston currently owns a slight edge.

The West has six contenders for the No. 2 seed.

San Antonio, shooting for its fourth title in seven years, has the inside track but plays six of its last 10 games on the road, although New Orleans (today) and Cleveland are the only two road games against playoff teams.

Houston has made a strong run without Tracy McGrady, but the Rockets face a challenging final eight games.

Denver has the easiest schedule in the West, but the Nuggets have been a .500 team in March.

New Orleans has been hot and cold and plays a brutal schedule down the stretch.

Utah might be the team best equipped to push the Lakers. But six tough road games could prevent the Jazz from moving into one of the top four slots.

A young Portland squad could use home-court advantage, but it’s doubtful the Trail Blazers can climb higher than fifth.

Dallas is trying to assure it gets in by holding off Phoenix.

The playoffs don’t start until mid-April. But if history holds true, the first two weeks in April could be important to which two teams are still playing in June.

Contact Mike --Email: mbaldwin@opubco.com.
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La Descarga Deportiva

For a good sports talk show which focuses heavily on local sports, I highly recommend La Descarga Deportiva--weeknights at 6pm on AM radio 670. Frequently the introductory banter between the regular callers and the hosts--Jerry del Castillo and Pepe Campos, El Decano de los Deportes and El Chamby, respectively--are enough to make me laugh. Unfortunately, while bilingual, it's mostly Spanish.

Here's a recent exchange I heard on the program:
Caller: I used to be down on the Marlins owner, Loria. But no more.
Host [Jerry del Castillo]: Glad to hear it.
Caller: I wish him a great 2009.
Host: [Suspiciously] Care to explain the shift?
Caller: I figure if he has a great year, the Marlins will trade him.

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The Local Boxing Scene is Non-antiseptic

Definition of an·ti·sep·tic:

a: coldly impersonal b: of, relating to, or being warfare conducted with cold precision from a safe distance with few or no casualties on one's side

That is exactly what the local boxing scene is not. Its participants don't come with guaranteed contracts. They don't perform in arenas with big screens, canned music and programmed chants to keep its fans awake. Talk about an incentive driven profession. Boxers must perform on each occasion or risk injury, not just defeat.

Tired of spoiled athletes who don't seem to care? Local boxing is a sport where a boxer who was knocked out in one of the early matches, comes back out to be with family and friends and sit among all the other fans. Talk about nowhere to hide. I walked past that boxer on my way out of the arena on a recent Friday night. He looked like someone who had lost much that evening, perhaps even the hopes of remaining a professional boxer. I got home, turned on ESPN and heard about Stephon Marbury. I wish the boxer and Marbury could have traded places that evening.

A few weeks ago I got to sit in on a local boxing press conference and attend the Friday night [12/05] boxing matches at the Miccosukee Resort and Gaming. Perhaps it was attributable to a Don King hangover I was subconsciously suffering from, but I was very surprised by the professional and collegial environment I experienced.

First the press conference. Aside from a majority of the 12 boxers on the card--some with their trainers and friends--there were about 10 members of the local media who attended, highlighted by:

• Channel 51's sportscaster René Giraldo
• The Miami Herald's boxing writer, Santos Perez
• Sports talk show hosts, Jerry del Castillo and Jose [El Chamby] Campos--from La Descarga Deportiva, 670 on the AM dial

The promoter of the boxing card was Tuto Zabala Jr. Promoting boxing matches is the family business for the Zabala's. His father, Tuto Zabala Sr. is a well known and respected name in Miami and Puerto Rico boxing circles and his teenage son was an active participant in many tasks on fight night. For the purposes of this boxing card, Zabala is in effect, in a joint venture with Boxeo Telemundo--they commit to carry one hour of boxing on a monthly basis on Friday nights--beginning at 11:30 pm to carry the main bouts live.

A number of the boxers spoke in a professional and appreciative manner. Most promising victory, but not with arrogance, but rather in a matter of fact tone which seemed to be as much a reflection of what they thought their roles required as their self-confidence.

My first big surprise. The favored fighter in the main bout was an 18 year-old red-headed Mexican kid, Saul Alvarez--a writer once referred to him as 'an angry and ripped *Opie Cunningham' in the ring. If I had dropped off Saul with my teenage kids at Sunset Place Mall, he would have fit right in--he was that soft-spoken and unintimidating outside the ring. Even a novice like myself was already speculating, 'if this kid is any good, this won't be his last televised fight.'

Finally, mixing comfortably with the promoter, assorted trainers and the boxers, the media contingent was clearly among colleagues who enjoyed the environment and each others company. Once the cameras had departed, a small but vociferous sub-group proceeded to discuss Zabala's Miccosukee boxing card, the Pacquiao vs De La Hoya match, UM Hurricane recruiting efforts, Tim Tebow, Butch Davis, Nick Satan and engage in rampant speculation as to the items potentially listed on Guy Richtie's divorce filing. Cursing my lack of foresight, which included afternoon appointments, I regretfully left the group, even as the staff of La Casita Restaurant, which hosted the press conference, was cordoning off the discussion area so as not to frighten the non-boxing related diners.

I know nobody's asked, but a future post will be about the night of the actual boxing matches.

*- While a common misconception among normal persons--those humans not obsessed with trivia--there was no Opie Cunningham. The writer, Clif Rold, probably couldn't make up his mind between Opie Taylor and Richie Cunningham and chose to go with a blend.

The Miami Herald article by Santos Perez about the press conference is copied in full at end of post.

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Alvarez takes on Pinzon, with dreams of a world title

Posted on Fri, Dec. 05, 2008

BY SANTOS A. PEREZ

Saul Alvarez targets only the immediate future of his professional boxing career, but this Mexican native can't help but imagine how his body's development could lead to higher weight categories.

Alvarez, 18, is considered one of Mexico's rising stars, but fight fans won't find him in the flyweight, bantamweight, featherweight or lightweight classes, where many of his fellow Mexican fighters excel.

Alvarez has fought most of his 23 bouts as a welterweight -- a division in which he won a regional title this year. Considering his age, Alvarez could end up fighting and excelling as a middleweight or super middleweight.

FRIDAY'S CHALLENGE

Before any possible venture into higher weight classes, Alvarez will make the first defense of his regional title against Colombia's Raul Pinzon in the main event of Friday night's card at Miccosukee Resort and Gaming.

''We still need to do more work in this weight division before we think of moving up,'' Alvarez said in Spanish after a news conference Wednesday at La Casita Restaurant in west Miami-Dade County.

``Later, we'll see how my body develops because I'm only 18, but right now, and God willing, the goal is to win a world welterweight title.''

Alvarez is 22-0-1 with 15 knockouts since turning professional in July 2005. A victory over Pinzon would retain Alvarez's regional belt, and it also could provide an additional boost in welterweight recognition.

''I am very satisfied how my career has progressed so far, but there is still plenty of experience to learn and strength to gain,'' Alvarez said. ``There is no rush in getting a world title opportunity.''

Yet, Alvarez acknowledges title dreams and hopes to exceed beyond a recognized belt-holder by one of the sanctioning bodies.

''Not only do I want to become a world champion, but I want to be a boxing idol,'' Alvarez said. ``I want to give all I can in the ring so the fans can leave the arena satisfied with my performances.''

PINZON CONFIDENT

But Pinzon (16-1, 15 KOs) said he will leave Miccosukee on Friday night with Alvarez's regional title.

''I caution him: This will not be an easy fight,'' Pinzon said in Spanish. ``I am very confident this title will return to Colombia.''

Friday's show has local fighters in undercard bouts.

Homestead's Orlando Gonzalez will face St. Louis' Leon Bobo in a scheduled six-round junior-lightweight match, and Miami's Sergio Garcia will fight Vero Beach's Chris Gray in a four-round junior-middleweight bout.
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