What Passes For Locust In Miami

What if the presence of so many obnoxious New Yorkers [Northeasterners really] in our community is not just the result of an aging population seeking warmer climates? For wisdom, we turn to the Word, Exodus 10:13-15

And the locust went up over all the land of Egypt, and rested in all the coasts of Egypt: very grievous were they; before them there were no such locusts as they, neither after them shall be such.

For they covered the face of the whole earth, so that the land was darkened; and they did eat every herb of the land, and all the fruit of the trees which the hail had left: and there remained not any green thing in the trees, or in the herbs of the field, through all the land of Egypt.

Thursday morning I saw pictures in the local papers of the next non-interim manager of the Florida Marlins. The clothing he was wearing openly, complete with a cap, was the costume of a professional New York baseball team. The stinking Mets. I felt physically ill.

Our future Marlins manager decked out in the garb of the gonads-less Mets! The choking-dog of a franchise that the Fredi Gonzalez led Marlins had the pleasure of knocking out of playoff contention in two consecutive seasons. In domestic abuse terms, those seasons, the glorious years of 2007 and 2008, ended with the Marlins grasping the Mets by the loose skin at the back of their necks and dragging them in a casually destructive manner through their home and tossing them dismissively out their own front door as though they were playing horseshoes in a zero-gravity environment [thankfully, they landed on jagged rocks infected with MRSA].

There are few pleasures in sports which can match watching a truly hated opponent suffer gut-wrenching loses. The agony on the face of Met fans at the final game in Shea stadium is something that I still draw strength from in difficult times. The thought that Bret Farve's last pass for three consecutive seasons have been throws which he either reacted stupidly or cowardly and cost his teams playoff games or a chance to make the playoffs, still brings a tear now and then.

But still, ... a future Marlins manager pictured while covered in feces? Physical illness soon led to depression. What if the presence of so many Northeasterners in Miami represents some type of Biblical punishment? What if the sins of Henry Flagler and Julia Tuttle are now having sporting repercussions? Parcells [Jersey], Riley [Schenectady], Loria & Samson [Joffrey Ballet]; to paraphrase Philip Bosco in The Pope of Greenwich Village [we do irony too here at 2TG], 'we're surrounded!' Depression deepens.

What if the wretched Northeasterners represent only half of the swarm of locusts? Wait a minute, what if ... those of us ... from parts ... south of Miami, represent the other half of the swarm cursing Miami? I scream out with a Roddy McDowall Twilight Zone like anguish, 'I am not a locust!,' even as I double-check limbs.

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Dishonest Florida Marlins Management

Jeffrey Loria makes Nick Saban look like an amateur. See Saban -- who has an uncanny resemblance to a screeching, squealing, rapacious swamp sow when his lies are played on videotape -- lied when cornered [see Tim Graham's post]. Loria lies as if the Marlins revenue sharing monies were dependent on the absurdity of his public comments.

Part of the fun of being an owner should be that you don't have to lie so blatantly about why you want to change your manager. But Loria approaches telling the truth as a kind of beguiling vice, cautious that it might be habit forming. Forbes has well documented his lies about the financial performance of the Florida Marlins, which I have converted into basic financial statements. But those lies are obvious. It's what MLB and their owners do, especially those on the receiving end of revenue sharing monies.

Telling such obvious lies about why you want to replace your respected Cuban-born manager prior to relocating your franchise into a predominantly Cuban-American community is different. It's more revealing. Their intentions have been public since last October.

The Marlins project, look and play like a .500 team. They are 2 games under .500 seventy games into the 2010 season. Loria on why he fired Fredi Gonzalez in the Sun-Sentinel:

"It is never easy to make a change in managers. Fredi has been with our club for four years. We have become close, and I am extremely fond of Fredi. I, along with all our fans, am grateful for Fredi's contributions. At the same time, we can't let personal feelings get in the way of taking steps that we believe are necessary to improve our ballclub.

"Decisions on individual personnel cannot supersede our overall goal, which is to win. We believe we can do better and be better. We owe it to our fans to put this team in the best possible position to win. Everyone knows how I feel about winning. That's the reason we're making this change. We still have a very long season in front of us, and plenty of time to turn things around. Everyone, our fans, our team, our organization, and myself wants us to win. That continues to be, and will always be, the goal."

No one believes that is the truth. Just like no one believes that the reason Forbes considers the Marlins so profitable is because, "Forbes assumes that player expenses are the Marlins only expenses," my favorite example of David Samson's efforts at dissembling.

All this for a 60 year old New York Mets managerial retread? Bobby Valentine last managed the Mets to a 5th place finish in 2002. I guess Don Zimmer isn't available. No, I know, he's just not New York enough for South Florida. How about we think outside the box -- outside the Boroughs? -- for once. Why limit our managerial retreads to MLB? Can't we add Bill Fitch and Mike Fratelo to the interview process?

Montreal Expo fans reading about Loria's latest move must feel like SEC investigators trying to warn people about Bernie Madoff way back in 2007. Jeffrey Loria, to paraphrase Miguel Angel (Cordero) Gonzalez, has much cash [for Yale, not middle relievers], but little class.

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Power and Glory: Home For That Halladay

I was there for Roy Halladay's perfect game against the Marlins Saturday night. Good thing too, it created a memory ready to be stirred. It will forever be the evening I attended a historic game with a good friend, as opposed to the first time I've ever over-paid for a Marlins ticket [Club level]. Prior to the consecration, the evening appeared to be adding insult to the monetary injury, as we arrived late for the game [bot of the 3rd], proceeded to over pay for food [I suppose just stating that we ate at the stadium would suffice] and arrived at our seats to start the 5th inning.

The very idea which brought me to the game -- a great pitching match-up -- I soon realized was cruelly being used to turn this into my most inefficient sports-related expenditure ever, at $9.20/inning and quick innings at that!

I have attended about 5 games a season since the Marlins have been around. For a while, at or about the turn of the century, when my kids were still at an age where their hatred of attending MLB games was unarticulated, I was actually banned from purchasing Fish Bowl tickets [Depression-era pricing for last 2 rows in upper deck] at the stadium after the All-Star break. The cost of parking exceeded the cost of tickets for many a season. As an aside, this has nothing to do with where we actually sat at the games. Turns out those empty seats you see on TV, are a blessing in no disguise.

So what was the feeling at the stadium Saturday night? Despite the hated opponent and classic pitching match-up, the biggest factor about the crowd at the game was the post-game salsa concert. The higher numbers attributed to those also there to enjoy the concert, meant that we Marlin [The Marlin Fan as Jonathan Zaslow might say] fans enjoyed a respite from being out-noised in our own home during a big game.

There always seems to be an awkward detente between us baseball fans and those there mainly for the post-game concert? Latin concert goers typically include younger attractive women [I didn't say that they were unwelcome interlopers], jewelry and a consistently unaccountable level of excitement. We baseball fans stare at them whenever they get flashed on the big screens as though they are animals to which we would give shelter, but not trust.

I wonder what Roy Halladay, with his now legendary bent-on-one-thing focus, was thinking about his start? Perhaps Graham Greene would have captured it best:

This place was very like the world: overcrowded with lust and crime and unhappy love, it stank to heaven; but I realized that after all it was possible to find peace there, when you knew for certain that the time was short.

That's how he pitched, like time was short. Treating the Marlins with a shabby indifference, carrion for a vulture with a plan. Clearly sensing my panic over the quick pace of the game and the bleak prospects for a rain-delay, Halladay pitched as though a door had opened in his mind and allowed him to glimpse his future with this perfect game in his resume.

Bottom of 5th - Roy Halladay pitching		PHI	FLA
Jorge Cantu	Strike (looking), J Cantu grounded out to second	1	0
Dan Uggla	Strike (swinging), Strike (looking), Ball, Ball, Ball, Foul, D Uggla flied out to center	1	0
Cody Ross	Ball, Strike (looking), C Ross grounded out to first	1	0

Halladay's perfect game through the 5th inning immediately presented a moral dilemma. Root for the chance to watch a historic game or a Marlins victory? No contest, I wanted to be at the ballpark for a historic game, as I told my friend. He looked at me like Jack Bauer looked at Tony Almeida in the DC Metro tunnels during Season 7. It's a look I never want to see again, but yes, I still wanted to see the perfect game.

Bottom of the 6th - Roy Halladay pitching		PHI	FLA
Brett Hayes	Strike (looking), Strike (foul), Strike (swinging), B Hayes struck out swinging	1	0
Cameron Maybin	Ball, Ball, Strike (swinging), Ball, C Maybin grounded out to shortstop	1	0
Josh Johnson	Strike (looking), J Johnson flied out to left	1	0

Now I'm looking around at a number of Philadelphia Phillie fans sitting around us and imagine that it must be pretty cool to show up as the visitors and get to watch a perfect game. My attention soon focused on a family right in front of us. Left to right; Dad [seemed like a Herb], Mom [Utley jersey], daughter 1 [Hamels jersey] and daughter 2 [Victorino jersey]. They seem pretty calm about what they are witnessing. Must be veteran fans I figure, ya know, never too high or too low. To paraphrase Miles in Risky Business, I can smell MLB knowledge.

Bottom of the 7th - Roy Halladay pitching		PHI	FLA
Chris Coghlan	Ball, Ball, Strike (looking), Strike (swinging), Strike (looking), C Coghlan struck out looking	1	0
Gaby Sanchez	Ball, Strike (foul), Strike (foul), Foul, Ball, Ball, G Sanchez lined out to left	1	0
Hanley Ramirez	Strike (looking), Ball, Ball, Ball, Strike (foul), Strike (looking), H Ramirez struck out looking Hanley stood there after the called strike, like a black question mark, ready to go, ready to stay, poised on his bat.	1	0

Being at a MLB game is no way to really watch a game closely. How could Coghlan and Ramirez have not swung at close pitches during a perfect game? Were the pitches even close? Like most fanatics, the integrity of the home plate umpire [Mike DiMuro] immediately came into question ... [submarine dive horn] ... [submarine dive horn] PLIQ alert. My best google smear odds came down to whether DiMuro could have been a fellow Mormon like Halladay ... and this game represented a ... a mission to him for, yes .... Nah, no luck on the conspiracy front. The jersey-clad family, still calm. Cool customers these folks are.

Bottom of the 8th - Roy Halladay pitching		PHI	FLA
Jorge Cantu	Ball, Ball, Strike (foul), J Cantu grounded out to third	1	0
Dan Uggla	Ball, Strike (looking), Ball, Strike (foul), Strike (looking), D Uggla struck out looking	1	0
Cody Ross	Strike (foul), C Ross popped out to shortstop	1	0

The sagacious power of Halladay drew nearer to the Marlins death every inning. Easy Graham ... that aside, there was something definitely wrong with the jersey-clad clan. They have not moved, they're not even buzzing with intra-family small talk designed to avoid silence [yes I was that close], but mainly reveal a vacancy. Granted, the jumbotron ads in Spanish for the salsa singers appearing in concert after the game - Luis Enrique and Jerry Rivera - may have unnerved them. But still these are Philly fans, they have likely witnessed human sacrifices at the old Vet.

The irrational fan in me begins to take over. I fantasize about starting a rumor that Halladay is wearing a Che Guevara t-shirt under his uniform. But I reject the idea. See, I would have had to start the rumor before the 7th inning for it to have a realistic chance of working.

Bottom of the 9th - Roy Halladay pitching		PHI	FLA
Mike Lamb	[Stadium announcer] Pinch-hitting ... Mike Lamb. My friend, who goes by a tribal-like nickname which bears no relation to his actual name [Wichi], begins chanting 'Lamb to slaughter' with an unblinking H. Lector-type intensity. Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, M Lamb flied out to center Dear Elias Sports Bureau, would it kill you to note that it was a 430 FOOT flyout?	1	0
Wes Helms	Strike (looking), Strike (swinging), Ball, Strike (looking), W Helms struck out looking OK - 1 last fantasy - last hitter Paulino walks on a horrible call by DiMuro. Hallady loses his perfect game. Then Coghlan homers on the 1st pitch and Halladay loses the no-hitter, shutout and game. As he walks off the mound, he charges DiMuro ...	1	0
Ronny Paulino	Strike (foul), Ball, Strike (foul), Herb under intense pressure from the jersey-wearing part of the family, finally rises from his seat [hell, it's his first body motion since the 5th inning] after the 2nd strike. I make a note to remind him of this should his selfish actions have cost Hallady the perfect game R Paulino grounded out to third	1	0

Roy Halladay, ora pro nobis

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When It's Not A Game

Very nice article today by Juan C. Rodriguez, the Marlins writer with the Sun-Sentinel. The article gives a difficult story -- about an 18-year-old brain tumor victim, Amy Donnelly, daughter of former Marlins coach Rich Donnelly -- a local connection. It explains how Donnelly and current Marlins pitcher Anibal Sanchez made a connection. Sanchez also has lost a child. In his case, an infant son named Alan Sanchez, to a viral disease. Alan had been born exactly one year after Sanchez had pitched a no-hitter on Sept. 6, 2006.

Stories like this make me care less about the outcome of games and more about the people who play them. Despite our perceptions about their health and wealth, even athletes at the top of their sports are not immune from tragedies and heartaches, especially those involving children. Off the top of my head, just those with Marlins connections, the list includes Preston Wilson, Derrek Lee, Ryan Dempster and now Anibal Sanchez.

Something else about the list of ex-Marlins, decide for yourself if you note anything ironic, bittersweet or just evidence of faith. I've cut & paste a portion of their Bio's from MLB.com:

• Derrek Lee - Created a foundation in 2006 to fight Leber's Congenital Amaurosis (LCA), a degenerative disease that results in loss of vision ... the effort, entitled "Project 3000," includes a plan to raise money to provide state-of-the-art genetic testing for every man, woman and child in the United States with LCA - about 3,000 individuals in all. ... Recognized as the Cubs Roberto Clemente award winner in 2007, an award given annually to players who combine outstanding skills on the field with devoted work in the community. ... Awarded the Major League Baseball Player's Association "Heart and Hustle" award for the Cubs in 2006 and 2007. ... Also works to bring baseball to the Chicago community through RBI Baseball (Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities).

• Preston Wilson - Began the "Preston's Pals" program in South Florida when he was a member of the Marlins...won the 2003 Rockies Good Guy Award as voted by the local BBWAA...was the recipient of the Marlins 2000 All-Heart Award, presented to the player who best exemplifies the team's commitment to the South Florida community...during his tenure with the Marlins, Wilson founded "Preston's Pride" and "Preston's Operation: Back to School," programs to provide for under-privileged and at-risk children...served as a spokesperson for the South Florida Blood Banks Sickle Cell Program...created a scholarship at his high school to help students pay for college...has also helped various programs such as the African American Council of Christian Clergy's "A Dream Come True" program, Sharon Robinson's "Breaking Barriers" program, Adopt-A-Classroom and Make-A-Wish Foundation...is the stepson of former New York Mets outfielder Mookie Wilson and is the godson of former Reds and Mets star George Foster.

• Ryan Dempster - Was named one of the 99 "Good Guys" in professional sports by The Sporting News in 2001. © Received the 2000 James "Tip" O'Neill Award, presented annually by the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum to the Canadian baseball player judged to have excelled in individual achievement and team contribution while adhering to the highest ideals of baseball. Was the Chicago Cubs nominee for the Roberto Clemente award in 2006 and 2008, which is given annually to the major league baseball player who combines outstanding skills on the field with devoted work in the community. His charitable endeavors in 2003 included assisting the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation and Garth Brooks' Teammates for Kids. Following the 2001 season, he was presented with the All Heart Award by the Florida chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America - given to the Marlins player who best exemplifies the team's commitment to the South Florida community by making a positive impact and by serving as a role model for others.

Romans 8:31-39: What then shall we say to this? If God is for us, who is against us? He who did not spare his own Son but gave him up for us all, will he not also give us all things with him? Who shall bring any charge against God's elect? It is God who justifies; who is to condemn? Is it Christ Jesus, who died, yes, who was raised from the dead, who is at the right hand of God, who indeed intercedes for us? Who shall separate us from the love of Christ? Shall tribulation, or distress, or persecution, or famine, or nakedness, or peril, or sword? As it is written, "For thy sake we are being killed all the day long; we are regarded as sheep to be slaughtered."

No, in all these things we are more than conquerors through him who loved us. For I am sure that neither death, nor life, nor angels, nor principalities, nor things present, nor things to come, nor powers, nor height, nor depth, nor anything else in all creation, will be able to separate us from the love of God in Christ Jesus our Lord.

Here's a link to another article about Amy Donnelly from Tim Kurkjian.

Juan C. Rodriguez's article is copied in full at end of post.

----------------------------------------------------
Bound by tragedy, ex-Marlins coach Donnelly supports Sanchez from afar
Both know heartache of losing a child

By Juan C. Rodriguez, Sun Sentinel

4:33 PM EDT, May 24, 2010

On Wednesday morning, a 63-year-old former big league coach from Steubenville, Ohio, will scan the box scores. Among the first names he'll look for is that of a 26-year-old Venezuelan right hander.

Rich Donnelly hasn't spoken with Anibal Sanchez since April 2009, when the Marlins played in Pittsburgh. The encounter was brief, but powerful enough for Donnelly to feel like he gained a son.

These two baseball men from divergent backgrounds are forever linked because of the tragedies they endured. Both lost a child.

Sanchez, who will start Tuesday's series opener against the Braves, in 2007 watched his infant son, Alan, succumb to Dengue fever, a viral disease spread by mosquitoes. The following spring Sanchez was speaking with former Marlins coach and fellow Venezuelan Luis Dorante, and Donnelly came up.

In 1992, Donnelly's 17-year-old daughter, Amy, was diagnosed with a brain tumor. During the playoffs, Amy attended one of the National League Championship Series games between her Dad's Pirates and the Braves and took note of his unique crouch and cupped hands over his mouth when directing baserunners.

Amy later asked her father if he was yelling, "The chicken runs at midnight." Amy died that January.

Five years later, Donnelly was the third-base coach for the Florida Marlins. Craig Counsell was known as the chicken in the Donnelly household because of the way he flapped his right arm in the batters' box.

When Counsell scored the World Series-winning run, Donnelly's son, Tim, told his Dad to look at the clock. It was 12:01. Just as Amy predicted, the chicken ran at midnight and Donnelly got the World Series title he was unable to share with his daughter in 1992.

"Luis Dorante told me and I said I'd like to see the DVD and he got it for me," said Sanchez, of a Lifetime special on the Donnelly story. "I saw it and it made an impression on me, that a child could predict the future. It was practically predicting what was going to happen…It's amazing. I went through the same thing [losing a child] and know what you feel."

During spring training 2008, Donnelly and Dorante were roommates. One night Sanchez happened to call Dorante, who took the opportunity to pass the phone to Donnelly.

"We talked and he said he watched the video and it really helped him and his wife during this tough time," said Donnelly, who now resides in Los Angeles. "My job the next year was to be in the dugout for every home game with the Pirates. When the Marlins came into town I told Luis I wanted to meet him."

That meeting occurred at PNC Park last April. Sanchez was jogging when Donnelly introduced himself.

"I popped out and just said, "Hey, I'm Rich Donnelly,'" he said. "When I said that, boy, he teared up real bad and we both hugged. He thanked me for that video. He told me about his son and pulled of his shirt and showed me a picture of his son on his right shoulder. He said, 'Every day I pitch my son is with me.'

"I told him, 'It's wonderful I got to meet you. I will be a fan of yours forever. Every time you pitch it will be like my son pitching.'…Because we both lost our kids and through these times we went through, we said we'll be bonded forever by this."

Added Sanchez: "He's a great person. We spoke about the loss of a child and what comes next. It's not easy to pick yourself up from that, how to start your career again. He told me to keep working and he would keep tabs on my games."

Donnelly stays busy with public speaking engagements, but he really wants to return to coaching. He emphasized to Sanchez carrying on his son's spirit through pitching. Alan would have wanted him to be a great competitor.

In addition to the trauma of losing a child, Sanchez went through the career uncertainty associated with undergoing shoulder surgery. He gave some thought to quitting baseball, but now he realizes he honors his son's memory every time he takes the mound. Donnelly drove home that point.

"It's difficult to continue in a moment like that," Sanchez said. "If I left it I wasn't going to come back. I decided to take the step forward."

A 63-year-old coach from Steubenville, Ohio couldn't be happier.

Juan C. Rodriguez can be reached at jcrodriguez@SunSentinel.com

Copyright © 2010, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
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The Pinto Chronicles: Griping About PLIQ Wrath

I have a dilemma. I possess knowledge about a certain group of people who have a condition which they may be unaware of. While I assume they may 'suffer' from this condition, it is not obvious they would would choose to combat it were they to become aware of it. The group I speak of is Purposely Low-IQ [PLIQ] baseball fans.

As I had noted in an earlier post [click here], Renyel Pinto is one of their favorite local targets. PLIQ's are typically extremely easy to identify. Any failed appearance by a relief pitcher will likely trigger an episode.

The easy and gut level reaction is to just confront PLIQ's and methodically and mercilessly poke holes in their baseball knowledge, as it were. But what if I would just be ruining a rare and simple pleasure in their lives. [Actually, all their pleasures are likely simple]. Where's the honor in that?

Here's where dreams and a working knowledge of 24 can be useful.

The following takes place between 8:35 am and 8:37 am outside a McDonald's in Miami-Dade County. Events occur in real time.

Jack Bauer - Sabermetrics Division: You criticized Renyel Pinto last night didn't you?
PLIQ Fan Martinez: Who are you? How do you know that?
Jack Bauer - Sabermetrics Division: Sir, you DO NOT want to play with me?
PLIQ Fan Martinez: OK, jeez
Jack Bauer - Sabermetrics Division: Why did you criticize Renyel Pinto?
PLIQ Fan Martinez: He was brought in to face one guy and he hit hit that guy and cost the Marlins the game OK.
Jack Bauer - Sabermetrics Division: You really think life is that simple son.
PLIQ Fan Martinez: Hey, I gotta go. I was late twice last ...
Jack Bauer - Sabermetrics Division: Son, we live in a world that has lefty-righty matchups, and those matchups have to be managed by men with no real job security. Who's gonna do it? You casual fan Martinez? [Comments now directed to crowd gathering to listen to the exchange]. You chronic sports radio show caller? You Mr. Anonymous profanity-laced blog post commenter? Middle relievers have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom. You weep for the complete game and you curse the lefty-righty matchups. You have that luxury. You have the luxury of not knowing what I know -- that Pinto's appearance, while tragic, probably saved runs; and the existence of lefty-righty matchups, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves runs.
PLIQ Fan Martinez: Look man, if you're related to Pinto, my bad OK?
Jack Bauer - Sabermetrics Division: Son, do you even know what a WHIP represents? How about P/PA?
PLIQ Fan Martinez: Whatever, look I'm more of a Dolphin fan. Football's my sport.
Jack Bauer - Sabermetrics Division: [Shaking his head] Classic PLIQ profile. Take care and remember; like some whacked out Tom Joad, I'll always be listening.

Tom Joad's monologue is copied in full at end of post.

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Tom Joad monologue:

After becoming idealistically radicalized by what he has witnessed, Tom - in a famous monologue - describes how he will carry on Casy's mission in the world - by fighting for social reform. Going off to seek a new world in a place unknown, he must leave his family to join the unspecified movement ("the one big soul") committed to struggling for social justice. In a more optimistic ending than the one in the novel, he has benefited from Casy's wisdom about the sanctity of all life, and a belief in universal love which comes from respecting all of humanity. He also has intelligently realized the unified power of working people speaking up for their rights - a revolution that people must adjust to:

Well, maybe it's like Casy says. A fella ain't got a soul of his own, just a little piece of a big soul - the one big soul that belongs to ever'body. Then...then, it don't matter. I'll be all around in the dark. I'll be ever'-where - wherever you can look. Wherever there's a fight so hungry people can eat, I'll be there. Wherever there's a cop beatin' up a guy, I'll be there. I'll be in the way guys yell when they're mad - I'll be in the way kids laugh when they're hungry an' they know supper's ready. An' when the people are eatin' the stuff they raise, and livin' in the houses they build - I'll be there, too.

http://www.filmsite.org/grap3.html
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Renyel Pinto: The Fredo Corleone of Relievers

At the risk of incurring great personal scorn, on this blog I have defended Fredo Corleone and the overall lack of GF knowledge rampant in our society.

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more ...

Renyel Pinto had a tough game in the Marlins win against the putrid New York Mets on Wednesday. He was predictably getting killed on the morning talk shows. The best line I heard came on the ESPN Deportes station [1450 AM] - Desayuno Deportivo - a caller said that he wanted he wanted Pinto to go far in MLB, ... far away. Knowing that fans, like popular emails which are constantly forwarded, are almost never accurate, I wanted to get into the numbers.

There were 95 relief pitchers in the National League which logged more than 40 innings. Here is where Pinto ranked in various categories against those other pitchers:

• Games pitched: 73 - 16th place
• Strikeouts per 9 innings: 8.51 - tied for 30th place [with Tim Byrdak]
• ERA: 3.23 - tied for 39th place [with Tim Byrdak]
• Innings pitched: 61.1 - tied for 39th place [with Tim Byrdak]
• HR's allowed: 4 - Tied for 39th with numerous others [but not Tim Byrdak]
• Pitches Per Plate Appearance: 4.05 - 73rd place [tied with Tim Byrdak]
• Walks & Hits per innings pitched [WHIP]: 1.61 - 87th place

Of those 95 National League relievers who pitched more than 40 innings, only 19 were lefties. Here is where Pinto ranked in various categories against those lefty pitchers:

• Games pitched: 73 - 8th place
• Strikeouts per 9 innings: 8.51 - tied for 9th place [with Tim Byrdak]
• ERA: 3.23 - tied for 11th place [with Tim Byrdak]
• Innings pitched: 61.1 - tied for 5th place [with Tim Byrdak]
• HR's allowed: 4 - Tied for 6th with numerous others [but not Tim Byrdak - who inexplicably gave up 10]
• Pitches Per Plate Appearance: 4.05 - 11th place [tied with Tim Byrdak]
• Walks & Hits per innings pitched [WHIP]: 1.61 - 17th place

As usual, getting into the numbers led to something even more interesting, Pinto and fellow lefty Tim Byrdak practically had the exact same season in 2008.

Pinto's WHIP is the one critical area where Pinto is as bad as local fans think he is [especially after a bad outing]. However, if Pinto's control were to improve -- he issued the most walks of any lefty NL reliever -- he likely moves up from being an average reliever pitcher to one of the better ones. Better to have a pitcher who needs to improve his control rather than his 'stuff.'

One other additional factor in Pinto's favor. His age, he is 27. The average age for the lefty relievers was 30.5. Only five of the 19 lefty relievers were younger than Pinto. For two of those, D Herrera [CIN] & C Zavada [ARI], 2008 represented their first year as a full-time reliever. Another one, J O'Flaherty [ATL] missed most of 2008 with an injury. For W Wright [HOU], 2009 represented his 2nd year as a full-time reliever, as compared to 3 years for Pinto and S Burnett [PIT], the other younger lefty reliever.

Overall Renyel Pinto was an average reliever in 2008. Being a lefty, he has more value that an average right-handed relief pitcher and has showed good durability -- between 58 and 64 innings pitched for the past 3 years. In addition, the fact that lefty relievers are typically older -- indicating that pitchers need a lot of experience to handle that role properly -- Pinto's relative youth gives him even more of a comparative advantage.

Bottom line, Renyel Pinto is a valuable left-handed relief pitcher with excellent prospects for improvement given his age. So go ahead and boo, flog and request that he be traded every time he goes to a 3-1 count, but understand that you do so out of frustration rather than any appreciation about how pitchers develop to succeed in that role.

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Gaby Sanchez vs Johan Santana

Looking for a bright spot in the loss to the hated and gratefully-seemingly-cursed New York Mets, I found it in Gaby Sanchez's at bats against Johan Santana.

As a Dodger fan long ago, I remember reading in Bill James 1985 Abstract about Orel Hershiser. Although he didn't make it to the majors until he was 25, in his 2nd year he had a consecutive scoreless innings streak of 34 in 1984. Easy to see now that it was a predictor of things to come, with Hershiser setting the MLB record for consecutive scoreless innings of 58 in his glorious year of 1988.

But in the spring of 1985, Hershiser had his doubters. In the type of analysis which would make Bill James ... Bill James, he warned [I paraphrase as I could not find my 1985 BJBA, no doubt pilfered by close friend and book hog / wanna-be E-bay vendor, J. Garcia] those doubters that the list of pitchers who had tossed more than 30 shutout innings in the history of MLB was very short indeed. In effect, average players rarely accomplish things which are rare in MLB history. The James style was to state that if Hershiser turned out to be an average pitcher, that would be unusual.

While Gaby Sanchez -- pride of Belen Jesuit [a fine school, but no Christopher Columbus] -- did nothing rare in yesterday's game, but he did do something unusually good for a young player given the circumstances.

Playing in the season opener in New York, in front of a big crowd and facing one of the best pitchers in MLB in his first 2 at bats, Sanchez had the following results:

• 3rd inning vs Santana, 11 pitch at bat with six foul balls and ended by hitting a sharp single up the middle.
• 5th inning vs Santana, 8 pitch at bat with three foul balls and ended by hitting a fly ball to right.
• 7th inning vs Nieves, doubled to left on the 3rd pitch of the at bat.
• 9th inning vs Rodriguez, 5 pitch at bat with 1 foul ball and lining out out to center.

The at bat in the 7th is also interesting because it came after the Marlins defensively disastrous bottom of the 6th, in which Sanchez was also charged with an error. So after showing great patience and plate discipline with Santana, Sanchez showed that he could be aggressive if the situation allowed and that he did not allow his fielding miscue to affect his at bat.

My point is not that yesterday's game means that Sanchez will be a good MLB hitter, it is to say that players who are not good MLB hitters rarely have the type of hitting game Gaby Sanchez had yesterday.

By the way, speaking of short lists. The list of MLB pitchers with 40 or more consecutive scoreless innings have the following characteristics [see list below]:

• Streak has been accomplished 19 times in MLB history
• Streak has been accomplished only 7 times since 1967
• Streak has been accomplished only 3 times since 1969 [did MLB hitters wear black armbands as a protest in 1968?]. Those pitchers are:

1. Orel Hershiser in 1988
2. Brandon Webb in 2007
3. Luis Tiant in 1972

• Number of pitchers to appear on the list twice: Two

1. Walter Johnson
   
2. Luis Clemente (Vega) Tiant
   If you haven't seen it, please check out the Farrelly brothers documentary about Tiant
   The Lost Son of Havana

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The Arrogance of the Florida Marlins Ownership

This morning I was in my car early heading to work at 6am. I was looking forward to at some point today blogging about what a great season the Marlins had. I was very surprised to hear from Joe Rose, on the air at WQAM, that Marlins ownership, New Yorkers Jeffrey Loria and his former son-in-law, David Samson, were preparing to fire manager Fredi Gonzalez. Going online I learned from Juan Rodriguez's Marlins blog that they already have his replacement, Bobby Valentine, having leaked their interest to ESPN and SI over the weekend.

Loria is of course free to hire whomever he prefers. What Marlins ownership can't do is tell us that Gonzalez will be fired because the team under-performed, because that claim is absurd on its face. So far, Larry Beinfest does not appear to be joining in with the company line, given that when he was asked by Rodriguez why the team had missed the playoffs, he responded that 'the main reason was the inconsistency from the starting pitching.' That will ring as true to anyone who has followed the Marlins -- three-fifths of the Marlins' season-opening rotation spent time in the minors because of non-performance -- as the 'under-performing' smear rings false.

The reason Gonzalez will be fired is that Loria prefers Valentine [or whomever] to Gonzalez. Again, it's his prerogative. The reason this firing will intensify the dislike of Loria and Samson is the lack of integrity with which they seem to operate. Saying that Gonzalez is being replaced because the Marlins didn't make the playoffs is too obvious a lie.

But this is not just another managerial firing, i.e. this is not Jeff Torborg or Joe Girardi. The Marlins are in the processing of relocating their franchise from the Dade-Broward County line to Little Havana. Gonzalez is Hispanic, with a Cuban-American background. Miami-Dade County in general, Miami specifically and Little Havana microscopically, in case some New Yorkers may not have noticed, has a ton of Hispanics [not as many as New York, but a lot]. Those facts don't mean that Gonzalez can't be fired. They do mean that Gonzalez can't be fired for a stated reason which is a lie, without building resentment against the franchise.

By telling such overt and dismissive lies, Loria and Samson are in effect spitting into the face of the community they are supposed to become a part of. A community which recently agreed to partner up with MLB and the Marlins to build a stadium. Gee, it's almost as if they don't care about their customers?

Noted.

Which brings me to the following article by Thomas Boswell, a respected sportswriter with the Washington Post. Boswell's article is about the Washington Nationals finances and a key source is the Forbes Magazine reporting about MLB finances.

Below is the financial statement I have developed about the finances of the Florida Marlins. The numbers are based on, and exactly tied into, the Forbes reporting, with specific line items confirmed independently. The Florida Marlins operating profits for 2006 through 2008 were $43 million, $36 million and $44 million. For 2009, their operating profit will likely be in the mid-$30's.

I have blogged extensively about the Marlins finances here on this blog. If you were outraged at the phony reasons Marlins ownership has given to explain why they wish to fire Gonzalez, now you know how I've felt listening to them deny their profitability.

Click on the image to print or enlarge


Thomas Boswell's article referenced are copied in full at end of post.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
A D.C. Game of Moneyball

By Thomas Boswell
Thursday, October 1, 2009

The Nats' final home game of the year Wednesday combined all the paradoxical and troubling threads of a season in which the team had the game's worst record and saw attendance drop 22 percent. Yet these same Nats, who will certainly receive revenue-sharing funds from other clubs this winter, operate on such a low budget and possess such a healthy bottom line that they are the financial envy of most other franchises.

The combination of Nats potential, both as a team and a market, has stood in contrast all year to the team's deluge of 103 losses. All that was illustrated, to an almost ludicrously degree, by a Justin Maxwell walk-off grand slam to sweep the Mets before 23,944. That two-out, full-count blast in the ninth off New York reliever Francisco Rodriguez brought cheers but also a hard question. Why are such moments, which make addiction to baseball go viral in any town, so rare here?

As Washington's obvious promise has been thwarted by its gruesome won-lost reality, resentment toward the way the Nats do business, already prevalent in Washington, is now spreading through the game. This offseason may be the juncture at which both local fans, as well as executives throughout the game, decide if the Lerners are responsible baseball citizens.

The Nats, who clinched the game's worst record on Wednesday thanks to a Pirates win, are on the verge of becoming a lightning rod of criticism, especially by big-market teams that pay into the game's huge revenue-sharing pot, according to numerous baseball sources contacted over the last three months.

"You're probably going to see revenue-sharing reform pretty soon," an American League executive said. "It's usually small-market teams like Pittsburgh that are the issue."

The Pirates, who have fielded 17 straight losing teams yet concede they have made a profit in each of the past six seasons, exemplify the business model: keep the payroll tiny, lose a ton of games every year, yet turn a profit thanks to revenue sharing and then claim it's the only way to survive in a tiny market.

But the Bucs have an excuse: Their metropolitan market -- like Denver, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City and Milwaukee -- is less than half Washington's size (No. 9 in the United States).

If the Nats keep operating as they have, they'll be seen as the only top-10 market with the gall to act like a bottom-five town.

When Major League Baseball ran the Nats, the Lerners inherited a 2006 payroll of $63 million that many considered skimpy after the Nats averaged 33,000 fans in '05. Yet the Lerners cut that budget immediately to $37 million and have not returned to $63 million. One consequence is that Forbes magazine ranked the Nationals the second-most profitable team in baseball in '08.

Even with the recent contracts to Adam Dunn, Ryan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg, the Nats' payroll will still plummet from $61 million this year to $40 million in current '10 obligations, close to dead last in baseball.

The Nats' position: We won't tell you anything about our finances, but just wait 'til next year.

"We are tremendously excited. The next big step is right there to be taken," said President Stan Kasten, who speaks for the team. "This is not a great year if you want a [free agent like CC] Sabathia or Mark Teixeira. But the players who are available are just what we need: a veteran starter in the rotation, two more arms in the bullpen and a middle infielder who helps our defense.

"We can do those things. We just have to do those things."

Actually, the Nats could afford to do all this and more. The bullpen arms they talk about don't include a costly closer. Add an $8-million-a-year right fielder if you want, too. (They won't.)

The paradox of the Nats was apparent in their final homestand. In nine games, at which you might expect empty stands, the Nats averaged 22,990 fans vs. their average of 22,719. Same old story: Some of us were the incorrigible core; some came to see a popular foe (Dodgers); and 85,174 arrived last weekend just because the weather was nice and, well, it was the last baseball this year.

Baseball awarded the Lerners such a popular core American product, still relatively affordable, and the District built them such a pretty new ballpark, that they can't keep people away. Attendance ranked above six teams, and if the average had been just 1,000 higher (as it might be once Strasburg arrives), the Nats would have been ahead of 10 teams. Factor in the Nats' big-market ticket prices, and they stand right in the middle of baseball in gate receipts.

To see how well the Nats are doing, even though the Lerners' public position is that they will "take no money out of the team" in the first 10 years, compare them to the Pirates: Since the Lerners took over, the Nats have outdrawn the Pirates by 1.4 million fans and, at higher ticket prices, produced about $100 million more in gate revenues. The Nats' local TV revenue (about $24 million a year) is also far higher.

On the other hand, the Lerners paid far more for the Nats, and borrowed more money, a debt that must be serviced.

The Nats provide no information on how they define "taking no money out of the team," except Ted Lerner's comments to me twice that he considers debt service as a cost. Kasten adds that Forbes magazine's '08 ranking of the Nats as the second-most profitable team in baseball is "way off." How so? No detail. Sorry.

Such privacy is their corporate right, but it's hardly forthcoming from a family that presented itself as a long-term partner with the District in the civic-minded attempt to revive Southeast with baseball as an expensive core catalyst.

Kasten assures me I can't possibly grasp the Nats' high finance. He even threw up his hands in exasperation, a new touch.

"That shows how much you don't know," Kasten said.

Here's one theory: After speaking with executives of other teams about their borrowing structures, one approach is to secure highly leveraged term loans with revolving lines of credit and then to amortize principal in the manner of a mortgage; that way, owners can claim to take little or no money out of the teams while still building their equity (and thus their own net worth).

Unlike the tiny-town teams, the Nats are a franchise with a defining choice to make. But it won't be psychologically easy. Teams such as the Padres have argued that, unless you are one of the sport's traditional "haves," it's not a winning business proposition to add tens of millions to payroll to build a better team. Ironically, the way the game is structured, it's safer and easier to be a lousy cheap club, but be ensured a decent buck.

Kasten vows that the Nats still have the same big-market dreams they proclaimed three years ago when the Lerners brought a team back to their home town, claiming they would build a franchise worthy of "the most important city in the world." The Dunn, Zimmerman and Strasburg deals are merely first tastes. Just wait -- but not long. That's their pitch.

No Washington team has lost more than 106 games since 1909 -- 100 years ago. The Nats could still reach 107 this weekend.

If the Lerners keep their promises, that is an opportunity that should never, ever come again. ---------------------------------------------------------------------

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Jeremy Hermida And The Expectations Game

Jeremy Hermida and his up and down professional career reminds me of Joaquin Andujar's favorite word, 'jewneberno.' In 2002, at Double-A ball, he overshadowed his then and future teammate, Josh Johnson. The Marlins top Minor League prospect from 2004 through 2006, Hermida became only the 2nd player in MLB history to hit a grand slam in his first MLB at-bat, in August 2005. Since 2006, Hermida has proven to be an average MLB hitter, a poor outfielder and has received more fan abuse than an ACORN thug at a Minuteman rally.

But when you get into Hermida's batting splits, you begin to get a sense of why he gets more chances than Earl Weaver's first wife among baseball people.

Here are his overall numbers:
YR --- AB --- AVG --- OBP --- OPS
2006 - 307 -- .251 -- .332 -- .700
2007 - 429 -- .296 -- .369 -- .870
2008 - 502 -- .249 -- .323 -- .729
2009 - 380 -- .258 -- .347 -- .734

Here are his AWAY numbers:
YR --- AB --- AVG --- OBP --- OPS
2006 - 149 -- .242 -- .329 -- .685
2007 - 219 -- .324 -- .401 -- .949
2008 - 271 -- .288 -- .364 -- .851
2009 - 186 -- .231 -- .327 -- .709

Offensively, after having an OK rookie season, Hermida had a very good 2nd season. Further, buried in the numbers for that 2007 season, is a remarkable differential in favor of his 'away' stats - 57 points in batting average and 96 points in slugging percentage. In 2008, he regresses in his overall stats to numbers which are similar to his OK 2006 season. However, the advantage in 'away' stats not only remains, they increase to 85 points in batting average and 175 points in slugging percentage. On the road, Hermida actually had great and good seasons in 2007 and 2008.

So if you are the Marlins braintrust during the 2008 off-season, you know that you have a good left-handed hitter on the road, 3 full years of MLB experience at the age of 24 and a durable player. While your home field is not a hitters park, it does not explain the type of differentials Hermida has produced, so perhaps there is a chance that he can duplicate his road performances at home. Besides, other teams can read those stats too, which gave Hermida value. You can hear other GM's thinking, 'I bet that kid will really produce once we get him out of that silently morbid Death Valley ...'

Two-thirds of the way thru 2009 and Hermida is basically repeating his 2008 [and 2006] season, with one important change. The home / away differentials have disappeared. No wait, they haven't just disappeared, they've flipped. Hermida is hitting 53 points higher at home than on the road this season, while the power numbers are the same home / away. 'Splain dat to me Lucy.'

So now is the time, right? Now is the time to give up on him? Wait, one more thing, he is maintaing his averages from 2008, despite cutting down on his strikeouts and increasing his walks. Statistically speaking, a player who improves in those areas should see his average increase. Also, his OBP is over .400 for August, not bad for an 8th place hitter.

So go ahead and cut him loose if it makes you happy. Like Harry Calllahan's punk, I hope you feel lucky, because I think the guy will be consistent Nick Johnson-type hitter sooner than later. Besides, what's another 2 months at this point?

This evaluation stuff, is no so easy Mister

Take a look at the list of first overall MLB draft picks below. For every Alex Rodriguez, there's a Paul Wilson. For every Ken Griffey Jr, a David Clyde. For every Danny Goodwin, there's a ... Danny Goodwin. Listen, we are talking #1 overall here, which Hermida wasn't, if it's an inexact science with them, there are no sure things. In comparison we can say one positive thing about Hermida, he's no Danny Goodwin.

First overall Major League Baseball draft picks
1965 Rick Monday Kansas City Athletics
1966 Steve Chilcott New York Mets
1967 Ron Blomberg New York Yankees
1968 Tim Foli New York Mets
1969 Jeff Burroughs Washington Senators
1970 Mike Ivie San Diego Padres
1971 Danny Goodwin Chicago White Sox
1972 Dave Roberts San Diego Padres
1973 David Clyde Texas Rangers
1974 Bill Almon San Diego Padres
1975 Danny Goodwin California Angels
1976 Floyd Bannister Houston Astros
1977 Harold Baines Chicago White Sox
1978 Bob Horner Atlanta Braves
1979 Al Chambers Seattle Mariners
1980 Darryl Strawberry New York Mets
1981 Mike Moore Seattle Mariners
1982 Shawon Dunston Chicago Cubs
1983 Tim Belcher Minnesota Twins
1984 Shawn Abner New York Mets
1985 B.J. Surhoff Milwaukee Brewers
1986 Jeff King Pittsburgh Pirates
1987 Ken Griffey, Jr. Seattle Mariners
1988 Andy Benes San Diego Padres
1989 Ben McDonald Baltimore Orioles
1990 Chipper Jones Atlanta Braves
1991 Brien Taylor New York Yankees
1992 Phil Nevin Houston Astros
1993 Alex Rodriguez Seattle Mariners
1994 Paul Wilson New York Mets
1995 Darin Erstad California Angels
1996 Kris Benson Pittsburgh Pirates
1997 Matt Anderson Detroit Tigers
1998 Pat Burrell Philadelphia Phillies
1999 Josh Hamilton Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2000 Adrián González Florida Marlins
2001 Joe Mauer Minnesota Twins
2002 Bryan Bullington Pittsburgh Pirates
2003 Delmon Young Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2004 Matt Bush San Diego Padres
2005 Justin Upton Arizona Diamondbacks
2006 Luke Hochevar Kansas City Royals
2007 David Price Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2008 Timothy Beckham Tampa Bay Rays
2009 Stephen Strasburg Washington Nationals

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What Is It Like To Be A Florida Marlins Fan?

What is it like to be a Florida Marlins fan? It's not as bad you might think, even before the great Wild Card run of 2009 [which will come to be known as the ugliest Phillies collapse since 64]. You've heard all the negatives, here are just a few of the positives, which encompass some of the supposed negatives:

• World Championship every 5 or 6 years
• None of those spoiled and wealthy players just going through the motions
• A zero tolerance policy towards 'can't miss prospects.' Yes they can miss and we are going to find out right now!
• Our unique attendance and home field dynamics, allow Miami fans to watch MLB while still observing CDC swine flu precaution guidelines.
• We Marlins fans can bond with great players before they enter the insufferably pompous stage of their career. There was a slight, but unavoidable, overlap with Miguel Cabrera.
  

The last item is the one which is the most constant source of fun for us Marlins fans. Every series seems to be another opportunity to re-live great memories or likable ball players. Let's walk back across the recent schedule:

• Houston Astros in town. Pudge catching, J.T. Snow is out! But it's not just the stars, Brian Moehler was here in 2005 & 2006.
• We just left Philadelphia. Paul Bakko did some time here in 2000. The dearth of ex-Marlins is the likely cause of the curse about to befall them.
• Washington Nationals? They are the Northern Marlins. Josh Willingham, Scot Olsen. Logan Kensing. Again it's not just that they played here [Ron Villone 2005], those guys came up to the big leagues here. Marlins fans would root against Willingham in only the most extreme conditions.
• Cubs. Derek Lee. 2-run double off Mark Prior in THE INNING. Ryan Dempster was a starter here for 5 years. Kevin Gregg was the most recent in a long list of improbably good Florida Marlins relievers - see the list below.
• Atlanta Braves. Eric Gregg [click here for an ode to the greatest strike call ever] and Yunel Escobar. Escobar is from Cuba, which is the equivalent of spending 3 years with the Marlins in our community].

OK, the streak ended with Atlanta. The Boston Red Sox? Oh, you mean the place Lowell and Beckett went to cash out with our blessings. I scan the boxscores for R Andino, M Cabrera, L Castillo, R Castro, A Gonzalez, M Jacobs, D Lee, M Lowell, M Olivo, J Pierre, M Redmon, I Rodriguez, G Sheffield, M Treanor, etc. I don't like to see our pitchers have to face each other, J Beckett, AJ Burnett, K Gregg, B Looper, J Miller, S Mitre, C Pavano, B Penny, J Vargas, D Willis, etc.

The Improbably Good Florida Marlins Closers

• 1993 - Bryan Harvey
• 1994 through 1997 - Robb Nen
• 1998 - *no saves were recorded
• 1999 through 2001 - Antonio Alfonseca [aka, El Pulpo, The Dragonslayer, and Six-Fingers]
• 2002 - Vladimir Nunez
• 2003 - Braden Looper - a personal favorite of mine - Marlins had a Saturday morning game-day promotion where kids were taken on a pitching, fielding and hitting sessions right on the field and under the stands, in the case of the hitting. Looper and Freddi Gonzalez were the pitching and batting instructors. In a highlight, my 7-year old daughter almost knocked Freddi over with a line drive. We're talking 2000 or 2001.
• 2004 - Armando Benitez
• 2005 - Todd Jones
• 2006 - Joe Borowski
• 2007 through 2008 - Kevin Gregg

*-Just kidding - Matt Mantei

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Why The Baseball Gods Stepped In

At a certain point during Tuesday night's Marlins game at Washington, the following factors must have reached a tipping point with the Baseball Gods:

• Florida Marlins record against the Washington Nationals in 2008, 14-3.
• Florida Marlins record against the Washington Nationals in 2009, 9-0.
• 25-yr old Josh Johnson appeared on the verge of throwing a 2 hit shutout, having retired the last 20 batters and about to face the bottom of the order with a low-pitch count in the 8th inning.
• Johnson would also be likely extending his streak streak of allowing three runs or fewer in his starts - the streak was now at 18 straight games.

The Marlins were on the verge of going 24-3 against the Nationals. The Baseball Gods don't allow great teams to abuse bad teams that badly over a 2 year period, let alone a just average team doing it to a bad team. The surprise was not that the Nationals rallied with 6 runs in the 8th, but that they even had to rally. That the rally came so late. What kind of debts does this franchise have with the Baseball Gods? Are the Baseball Gods trying to make Pittsburgh feel better in comparison?

Take a look at the Elias MLB Standings grid. The grid allow us to go back to 2002. I'll focus on division rivals which typically play each other 18 times and find the most lopsided records in both leagues and what those teams records were the following year.

• 2002 - BOS v TB 16-3
• 2003 - BOS v TB 12-7

• 2002 - PIT v MIL 15-4
• 2003 - PIT v MIL 7-10

• 2003 - OAK v TEX 15-4
• 2004 - OAK v TEX 11-9

• 2003 - SF v SD 14-5 and WAS v NYM 14-5
• 2004 - SF v SD 7-12 and WAS v NYM 9-10

• 2004 - NYY v TB 15-4
• 2005 - NYY v TB 8-11

• 2004 - LAD v ARI 16-3
• 2005 - LAD v ARI 5-13

• 2005 - LAA v TEX 15-4
• 2006 - LAA v TEX 11-8

• 2005 - ARI v LAD 13-5
• 2006 - ARI v LAD 8-10

• 2006 - BOS v BAL 15-3
• 2007 - BOS v BAL 12-6

• 2006 - HOU v PIT 13-3
• 2007 - HOU v PIT 5-10

• 2007 - CLE v MIN 14-4
• 2008 - CLE v MIN 8-10

• 2007 - SD v SF 14-4
• 2008 - SD v SF 5-13

• 2008 - TB v BAL 15-3
• 2009 [partial] TB v BAL 3-4

• 2008 - ARI v COL 15-3
• 2009 [partial] ARI v COL 6-6

• 2008 - FLA v WAS 14-3
• 2009 [partial] FLA v WAS 9-1

If the Marlins finish the year with a 13-5 record against the Nationals, they are on track to have had the best record in back to back years against a division rival than any other team in MLB since at least 2002.

Seriously fellow Marlins fans, what are we complaining about?

Happy birthday Daniel!

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Marlins Comeback, Irrational Fears and Rick Camp

Try and understand my irrational habit involving MLB specifically, and local team affiliations in general. I enjoy following, listening, but not always watching, MLB's Florida Marlins. I also enjoy the emphasis in the field of economics which assumes that human behavior is rational and based on incentives and trying to find that logic in everyday activities. Fandom and efficient use of my time has long represented one of those RAM-memory eating concerns which David Allen tells me to write down and figure out the next action step to resolve.

But the now vicious habit -- whose inculcation began through an old Zenith radio [it's not the one pictured, but close] which I now equate to the method of attacking civilization in Stephen King's novel, 'Cell' -- had idyllic origins [don't they all?] in the early 1970's, as I sat by myself and carefully calibrated the radio dial to pick up WKAT-AM which carried the Atlanta Braves games. My favorite scenario was when they were on the road to play the LA Dodgers, as I had the kitchen to myself with no pesky human witnesses to impede my assault on the fridge [the roaches were unamused]. That's two more bad habits if you're keeping count, so let me confine this post to just one and not digress.

The habit which began next to that radio was cemented on cable television in the early morning hours of July 5th 1985. The glorious baseball game which began with and endured two hours of rain delays, lasted an actual six hours, ended at 4 am, had a player hit for the cycle and saw the Atlanta Braves hit two two-out game-tying home runs in extra innings. Afterwards, the Braves stadium people, clearly in a sleep-deprived decision-making mode, went ahead and emptied out their fireworks, which resulted in numerous 911 calls in the Atlanta area.

The second of those two-out home runs was hit by a middle relief pitcher who had the worst career batting average of any active MLB player when he stepped up to the plate in the bottom of the 18th inning, his name was Rick Camp. Camp hit the home run on an 0-2 count. Often, when I hear one of those jokes about people wasting their Genie-granted wishes on less than miraculous things, I think of that home run.

I was watching and I knew I had just seen one of the most amazing sports-related things ever. But it must have been around 3:30 am, there was no one who I could turn to or call. I walked outside my Little Havana house on the possibility that there was someone else watching who needed to have another human being confirm what they had just seen. There was no one and besides that, I was quickly reminded that I didn't live in the safest of neighborhoods.

What I saw when I walked back inside made this the greatest game ever. The Mets scored 5 runs in the top of the 19th inning. Now I know the Camp 18th inning home run is the main thing here, so if the game had ended with the Braves going 3-up and 3-down, it's still gotta be one of the top 5 games ever, no doubt. But what happened next makes it #1 and if you disagree you're probably the type of person who thinks public employee unions are a good thing for democracy.

The Braves had two outs with a runner on second. Then, walk, walk, single and the tying run comes up to the plate in the person of Rick Camp. Again an 0-2 count. This time he strikes out. I was standing up and not breathing during his at-bat. Greatest game ever, case closed.

The unproductive activity I alluded to earlier is watching or listening to the end of sporting events involving teams I root for which will almost certainly [98% probability] result in defeat, i.e. I'm not even counting close or interesting games. The irrational fear is the fear of missing any comeback. Missing any comeback is annoying, missing a great comeback is anathema. Fortunately, I have only one other irrational [plenty of rational ones] fear in life, that is being outside of Miami the day Fidel Castro suffers a violent and agonizing [OK, ... any kind of] death.

Recently the Marlins had one of those comebacks against the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was a comeback on steroids with 14 unanswered runs, culminated with a 10-run eight inning. It was the 3rd time in MLB history that a team had come from 7 runs down and won by at least 7 runs. I missed the comeback. I didn't just miss it, I missed it in the most egregious of manners. I gave up on the game based on the time and score [down 7 in the 5th]. I turned my back on what may be the highlight of the season for what? A little extra sleep? Taking the easy way out has left an empty feeling. This must be what it feels like to vote for Democrats.

Thank goodness Bluto and Otter weren't around to see it:

D-Day (Bruce McGill): War's over, man. Wormer dropped the big one.
Bluto: Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
Otter (Tim Matheson): [whispering] Germans?
Boon (Peter Riegert): Forget it, he's rolling.
Bluto: And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough... [thinks hard] the tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go! [runs out, alone; then returns] What happened to the Delta I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? "Ooh, we're afraid to go with you Bluto, we might get in trouble." Well just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Wormer, he's a dead man! Marmalard, dead! Niedermeyer -
Otter: Dead! Bluto's right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards. Now we could do it with conventional weapons that could take years and cost millions of lives. No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part.
Bluto: We're just the guys to do it.
D-Day: Let's do it.
Bluto: LET'S DO IT!!
[Chaos ensues--for most of the rest of the movie]

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Emilio Bonifacio and His Selectively Tough Critics

After "Michael Jackson," the phrase "why is Emilio Bonifacio playing everyday" was the most popular worldwide search term in Google last week. Or maybe it just seems that way. Earlier in the week, Juan Rodriguez's Sun-Sentinel blog basically told Marlins fans, 'you may wanna back off, Bonifacio might not be going anywhere.' That blog post made sense because Bonifacio has become the favorite target of local sports talk shows callers [no doubt only temporarily supplanting Freddi Gonzalez, who is filing in ably for Randy Shannon until football season begins]. I was going to describe those callers as hyper-critical and illogical, but since I already noted that they called sports radio shows, that would be redundant.

Later in the week, Dave Hyde weighed in with a balanced take on Bonifacio, pointing out positives, for example how his OBP has improved by month. However, the negative crescendo reached its peak with Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus on the Jonathan Zaslow radio show on Friday. Joe really doesn't like Emilio. I believe the nicest thing he said was that 'Bonifacio really wasn't really a MLB player.' I enjoy the analytical approach which sites like Baseball Prospectus have opened up to us fans. But in listening to Sheehan, the limits of statistical analysis, or more accurately, the limitation of statistical analysis without imagination, became evident.

What's the point in just saying that Bonifacio's OBP and OPS need to improve? If you say it with enough invective does it become more interesting? The real questions worth analyzing are whether Bonifacio can be expected to improve or how long the Marlins can afford to continue to play someone with his current level of stats. Clearly the Marlins believe he will improve [as he has begun to do so already]. Those who say that Bonifacio should not be playing are in effect stating that he will not improve. Based on what? Do they discount the improvement he has already shown? Are they aware that many good players struggled early in their careers?

I had a post where I discussed Dan Uggla's performance by month during his first 3 seasons and made certain assumptions based on that [namely that if the Marlins were to trade him, they should do so right after the month of June]. If someone had replied that 3 years was not enough of a track record to assume how he would perform in his 4th or 5th seasons, I think that would be a fair point to make, especially if someone could back it up with examples.

That is the area that I expected someone from Baseball Prospectus to get into. But that's not what Sheehan did [it took me a while to realize that he wasn't just another angry white man from Aventura]. I looked up Bonifacio's stats, he has 500 MLB at bats. In those 500 at bats, Bonifacio has walked way too little and struck out way too much, but are Bonifacio's critics saying that after 500 at bats, you pretty much know the what type of MLB hitter someone can be?

That doesn't make sense to me. Even my late night cursory look at other 2B revealed that Brian Roberts had a similar poor start to his career -- perhaps not coincidentally when Roberts was 23 & 24 years old -- check out their stats at the beginning of their careers:

Bonifacio: 500 AB / .244 AVG / .296 OBP / .310 SLG
Roberts: 401 AB / .244 AVG / .294 OBP / .327 SLG

Also, keep in mind the following facts about Emilio Bonifacio:

• He is 24 years-old.
• He is really fast.
• This is his 3rd organization in 3 years. In practical terms, he's worked for 3 different bosses, 3 different management teams, while living in 3 different cities / homes.
• Bonifacio is learning a new position at the MLB level, 3B.
• The Marlins baseball operations -- widely regarded for their ability to compete with minimal payrolls -- believe enough in Bonifacio to have traded for him and then stuck with him through major struggles.
• He's hitting just 4 points less than Jeremy Hermida.
• He is really, really fast.

I love stats. But the type of people who used those stats to beat up on players without also conveying that they are just guessing about the prospects of that player's development -- a guess, by the way, which is at odds with the collective opinion of Larry Beinfest, Michael Hill and Freddi Gonzalez -- strike me as just a cut above a fan yelling obscenities at the ballpark, especially when they avoid criticizing someone like Beinfest with the same amount of intensity.

The reason I equate the two is that just like I assume that fans who specialize in obscenity-laced tirades at the ballpark would never speak that way, especially without the alcohol, face to face to the athlete. Similarly, analysts or commentators who go after someone like Bonifacio, rarely attack those ultimately responsible for putting him in the lineup [i.e. Larry Beinfest] with the same amount of gusto. The reason they don't in the case of Beinfest, is that he has a very good reputation [and memory, no doubt] in MLB. As such, those who pull their punches when it comes to those who are actually putting Bonifacio in the lineup, are glorified bullies in my book.

They represent a new set of MLB powers that be, armed with too many spreadsheets and too little humility. If they ever get tired of baseball, they probably would fit right into Washington DC. To paraphrase Nick Carraway, I think 'they're a rotten crowd, the whole damn bunch put together.'

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Is 2 Think Good the Snopes of the Florida Marlins? True

I'm always surprised when I check out chain emails forwarded by friends on Snopes, they are invariably false. In a way, I see myself as a low-rent Snopes for the Florida Marlins.

For example, now that the Marlins are now 7-0 vs. the Washington Nationals and just 2.5 games out of first place, most fans might be tempted to attribute the Marlins position in the NL East to their record against the Nationals. They would be right, but not how they think. See the Marlins would be even closer [2 games out] if no one in the NL East had played the Nationals.

The Phillies are 10-2 and the Mets are 7-2 against the Nationals. The Dodgers, the team with the best record in the NL, is the only NL team without a winning record against the Nationals [1-1]. But at least if fans are talking about won-loss records, their arguments are rooted in facts. It's not like they're citing luck, opposition injuries and managerial moves, the unholy trinity for the nattering nabobs of negativism.

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Anatomy of a Possible Florida Marlins Trade

Let's play Florida Marlins GM. On more than one occasion, Larry Beinfest has indicated that the Marlins want to emphasize pitching and defense. Their numerous good young pitchers are a testament to that focus. However, defense has been a problem for the team.

My impression as a fan is that players rarely improve significantly as fielders. So poor or below average defensive players need to be replaced if a team expects to improve. The defense up the middle [CF, SS, 2B & C] is considered the most important part of a team's defense.

As someone who used to do stats by hand as a kid and then as a young adult would receive my weekly Bill James Fantasy League updates through the mail, the current world of available on-line stats [through ESPN] from the Elias Sports Bureau is amazing.

The best way to measure defensive ability is a combination of fielding percentage [FPCT] and the range factor [RF]. RF numbers will obviously vary significantly between positions, so you can't really compare those numbers beyond a specific position. The importance of the RF stat is that it helps to determine whether a player has a good fielding percentage partially because he is not getting to the more difficult fielding chances due to their lack of range. I limit my analysis to the National League, i.e. only league playing real baseball.

Let's look at the Marlins defense at those positions:

• CF - Cody Ross. His RF [2.6] is just below average. His FPCT [.980] ranks last among regular CF's. Ross splits his time between CF [57% of his games] and RF. He is also one of the hottest hitters in MLB at the moment. But the answer to getting better in center-field is named Cameron Maybin.


• SS - Hanley Ramirez - Hanley's RF [3.96] and FPCT [.973] are below average for a NL shortstop. His RF has dropped significantly from his first 3 years [4.55 in 06 / 4.27 in 07 / 4.40 in 08 - any of those RF's would be an above-average stat in 09]. This could be due to his increased weight or to his battling a groin injury, but it's not good news either way. If the Marlins ever decide to move Hanley to 3B, they will bring RF stats to that meeting.


• C - John Paul Baker [started 62% of games] / Ronny Paulino - In a real statistical anomaly, their defensive stats are practically identical. Their FPCT [.992 both] is below average. I'm going to ignore the RF for catchers, since I think they include strikeouts as putouts [they are above average in this stat--8.07 & 8.24]. The key stat for catchers is the caught stealing percentage [CS%]. Among regular catchers, the stat is bookended by the Magnificent Molina's, Yadier on top [.455] and Bengie at the bottom [.194]. Both Baker [.184] and Paulino [.195], are more like Bengie. Here again the stat can be misleading. The Marlins young pitchers may be doing a poor job of holding runners on. The answer to getting better at catcher is named Kyle Skipworth.


• 2B - Dan Uggla - His FPCT [.980] is below average and his RF [4.12] is the worst in the NL by a wide margin. Besides the poor defense, Uggla's problem is that his position is one of the few that the Marlins have a readily available option to improve immediately--Chris Coghlan. Coghlan's strength is not his defense, but he is seen as an improvement over Uggla.

So why would the Marlins trade a productive hitter for just a marginal improvement defensively? They would do so if they believe they have seen the best of Dan Uggla and could get the most value for him right now.

As I noted in an earlier post, Uggla's 3 previous seasons indicate that May and June are by far his best months. His offensive numbers have consistently dropped during July and August. One factor working in favor of not trading Uggla is that he is one of the core group of players that fans have gotten to know since 2006.

Given that the Marlins are in contention and the fact that Uggla is one of the highest paid Marlins, trading him could be seen as evidence that management is reverting to their salary dumping ways. In light of the recent approval of the use of public monies towards the building of a new stadium for the 2012 season, trading Uggla would be seen as an even more egregious move than usual. But Matt Lindstrom's injury / demotion may have just tipped the scales in that equation. Because now the franchise could argue that while they didn't want to part with Uggla, they could not pass up a key reliever as a way to improve immediately.

So who would the Marlins trade Uggla for? OK first let's figure out who would benefit most from his offense. See the stats below -- click on image to enlarge:



So here are the teams which Uggla would represent an improvement offensively and strategically the teams would not have an issue making a trade [i.e. teams typically would not make a trade within their own division] -- Colorado, Detroit, San Diego and Seattle.

Colorado: Their current 2B, Clint Barmes leads the league in RF [5.45 -- by the way, so does their shortstop, Tulowitzki @ 4.95] and the team leads the NL in runs scored, so they are an unlikely trade partner.

Detroit: Their current 2B, Placido Polanco is 2nd in the AL to Ian Kinsler in the RF [5.04] and leads the AL in FPCT [.997]. However, Polanco is now 33 years old and a below average offensive player on a team which is right in the middle of the league in runs scored. They could use the offense. But I don't see the Marlins being interested in the 2 Tiger relievers having the best seasons, Fernando Rodney or Bobby Seay.

San Diego: Their current 2B, David Eckstein is veteran [34 yrs old] and while he has been a good fielder in his career, he currently has a poor RF [4.48] and San Diego is last in the NL in runs scored. So who does San Diego have that the Marlins would want? Heath Bell is tied for the league lead in saves, after having taken over in that role from Trevor Hoffman. Edward Mujica is having a nice year as a setup man, but he's not worth trading Uggla for. Unfortunately, Uggla is likely not enough to get a top reliever for straight up.

Seattle: Defensively, Dan Uggla would actually represent an improvement over the Mariners current 2B, Jose Lopez [RF 4.07] and Seattle is last in the AL in runs scored, so we could be in business here as well. The Mariners top reliever, David Aardsma, came over from the Red Sox in a trade and is having such good year, that again, Dan Uggla alone is probably not enough to get Seattle to make this deal.

As I see it, the Marlins best option is to trade Uggla to secure a top reliever -- either Heath Bell or David Aardsma. But the additional price would likely be one of their young starters [Sean West, for example]. Would you make that trade?

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The Florida Marlins and Mandichian Candidates

On May 11th, the Marlins suffered lost their 6th loss in 7 games and found themselves 6 games under .500. Last night the Marlins beat the Orioles to get their record back to .500. Try and think back, since May the 11th, of all those writers or commentators who have told you that the Marlins meager payroll finally caught up to them. 'This team can't continue to compete' ... yada yada yada.

It is not surprising to find local media who are willing to bury the Marlins after a slump [even in May]. They are in jobs that require either originality or negativity. Given that originality is rare because it is difficult, negativity is a fairly rational choice on their part. But do keep the doomsayers [the Mandichian candidates?] cluelessness in mind during the next Marlins slump.

The last time we looked at what's right with the Marlins was back in May, let's update the good news about the Florida Marlins:

• 25 year-old Josh Johnson leads the NL [the AL is dead to me] in innings pitched, is tied for the lead in quality starts and is 4th in ERA.
• 24 year-old Andrew Miller has been more consistent since coming off the DL in May and gave up only 1 hit in his 7 innings against the Orioles.
  
• 22 year-old Chris Volstad gave up more than 4 runs in a start for the first time in his 27 career starts in back to back starts in June. That raised his ERA by a full run. However, he bounced back with what now can be described as a typical Volstad effort against the Yankees -- 6 innings, 3 earned runs.
• 26 year-old Ricky Nolasco has an ERA of 2.50 in his last 3 starts since returning from the DL in June. Included in that was allowing the Red Sox only 1 hit in 5 innings at Fenway.
• 23 year-old Sean West's only bad start [out of 6] was his last, a loss against the Yankees at home last Friday.
• Kiko Calero, Dan Meyer and Renyel Pinto all have ERA's under 2.22 and are part of a Marlins bullpen which leads the NL in innings pitched. Unfortunately, likely resulting from that over-use, Calero and Pinto have spent time on the DL this year.
• 25 year-old Hanley Ramirez is hitting .329 and is about to start his 2nd All-Star game.
• In 24 year-old left-handed batter Chris Coghlan, the Marlins appear to have found their leadoff hitter. After seeing his average drop to .200 after his first month, Coghlan did what all players who stick in the majors do, he adjusted. He's at .275 overall now and he's actually hitting over .300 in the lead-off spot.
• Dan Uggla remains a productive RBI man, despite his Mendoza skirting average.

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